What happens next??

Some thoughts on an interesting past 12 hours and what may happen next.

When anybody talks about ‘moral authority’ or ‘moral victory’ it’s because they don’t have the actual authority or victory. Each of the parties have flawed claims to become the government and here’s why.

• Conservatives – yes they are the biggest party and got the most votes. But the electorate hasn’t given them a clear mandate – it’s almost as if the electorate wanted change, but were not entirely convinced by the Conservatives so didn’t hand them a clear victory in order to ‘keep them honest.’ Also have the problem that they only have one MP in Scotland – so not a clear UK wide mandate either.

• Labour – clearly the electorate doesn’t want them as the sole party in power, or indeed in power at all. A massive loss in their vote – both in seats and percentage terms. Also have the issue that 41 of their 258 MPs are Scottish and would be able to vote on issues that affect England (and Wales) but, with devolved government, have no impact on their constituency; the tricky ‘West Lothian question’ posed by Tam Dalyell. To remain in government when clearly rejected by the electorate, and be supported by so many Scottish MPs (and possibly the SNP as well) to such an extent, raises issues about their ‘mandate’.

• Lib Dems – seem to be kingmakers but have been compromised. According to the polls people wanted to vote for them, but they couldn’t actually bring themselves to do so once in the voting booth. If they came to support Labour, who have been rejected, they leave themselves open to accusations of selling out to gain office and propping up a busted government. Supporting the Conservatives won't be popular within the party.

So it’s tricky... what should happen?

Well, if I was Nick Clegg I’d say that the Lib Dems will abstain in the vote on the Queen’s Speech – the first vote of ‘confidence’. That puts the decision back to Labour – do they brazen it out and risk defeat? In effect you’re offering Labour the chance to ‘do the honourable thing’. It shows that you’re not going to sell out just to gain power, won’t risk a split your party, and is not denying the result of the electorate. Above all it allows a space to breathe and then puts the onus on to the Conservatives to try to form a government, but is also telling them not to do anything stupid.

What will happen?

Still think a Conservative minority government - with a 'confidence and supply' arrangement with the Lib Dems is the most likely option – but may not happen for a few days.

Who knows – perhaps Caroline Lucas should be asked to try and form a rainbow coalition...