Have to say I was disappointed with Panorama on FIFA on Monday night - if nothing else a programme that enables David Mellor to take the moral high ground will always leave a bitter aftertaste. However, what really disappointed is that showing FIFA is less than transparent and might have some dodgy members is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel. What for the next two programmes - hard hitting investigations in to the Pope's religious views and what bears might get up to in the woods??
Some of the allegations were new but hardly surprising - indeed Andrew Jennings has been investigating FIFA and other sporting bodies for many years and runs the excellent Transparency in Sport website. How will this impact the England bid? Well I'm tempted to say 'who cares'? But I suspect the impact will be limited - I doubt England were ever going to get the 2018 Finals. For what it's worth here's how I think the FIFA meeting will pan out...
2018 - the best bid is England. It's probably the only bidder who could hold the finals tomorrow, it has a football culture, excellent grounds, sound finances and innovative TV companies who could provide the pictures. They won't win. The Spain/Portugal bid will get several votes early on but both have had a finals - World Cup or Euros - fairly recently and giving them the finals with their current economies is risky. I think Russia will win - they haven't had the finals and are a 'new market', have serious money and a 'friendly' media. The outside bet would be Holland/Belgium - if they survive the first round (and I think either they or England will go out in round one) they might emerge as a compromise winner. If Putin turns up I think Russia will walk it.
2022 - should go to Australia. Football may not be the most popular sport in Aus, but they are sports mad and know how to put on big sporting occasions. They are also a 'new market' but the main thing against them is the time zone and what time the games would be in the important European and African TV markets. Japan and South Korea have recently (jointly) held the finals so I think either USA or Qatar will win. The USA if FIFA are seduced by the $ and trying to get 'soccer' to finally break America; Qatar will win if seduced by the money, the sun and a completely new market. I reckon Qatar might, surprisingly, sneak it.
All will be clear later on Thursday...
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