Three Election Predictions

Always a dangerous thing but here goes...

1. The 'other parties' will be successful
There were only two MPs in the old Parliament who were truly independent - Richard Taylor, the NHS doctor who has been the Wyre Forest MP since 2001, and George Galloway of Respect in Bethnal Green. Boundary changes mean Galloway is standing in the Poplar & Limehouse seat and will probably struggle to win. Taylor is again standing in Wyre Forest and a lot will depend on how strong a local vote he can still draw. Nontheless, outside the 'normal parties' - Con, Lab, Lib Dem, N Irish, Welsh and Scottish - I suspect that one or two of the 'fringe' parties will either come a good second or even nick a seat. Ones to watch are,

• Stoke on Trent Central - where given a 'parachuted in' Labour candidate and a couple of strong independents who could further split the left wing vote, the BNP, who already have a strong presence on the council, might take the seat.
• Barking - again a strong BNP presence on the local council and a disaffected 'working class' Labour vote could mean the BNP winning - Nick Griffin polled over 16% of the vote and nearly came second in 2005.
• Buckingham - the constituency of John Bercow, the Speaker, and so tradition means the main parties don't field a candidate. However, Bercow is on the left of the Conservatives, Buckingham has been a traditional right leaning Conservative area, there is local dissatifaction with Bercow and Nigel Farage is the UKIP candidate. Anything could happen.
• Brighton Kemptown - should be a strong Green vote here. Not enough to win but will be a good second place.

2. There will be at least one 'Portillo moment'
Hot favourite for this is Ed Balls to lose his seat. Boundary changes mean a 'notional' majority of 9000 but the local Conservative candidate is running a clever and high profile campaign - including raising decent money on the internet. I suspect Balls, a disliked by the public Cabinet Minister in a disliked government, is very worried.

However, there could also be a few other shocks - how about Jacqui Smith in Redditch? Or even perhaps Jack Straw in Blackburn and Harriet Harman in Camberwell & Peckham? The latter two would be big shocks, but this is a funny election.


3. The winner will be...
A few weeks ago I would have predicted the Conservatives with a small majority - but the rise of the Lib Dems means I'm going to slightly change this. I think it will be a hung parliament - but there won't be a coalition. I reckon we will have a minority Conservative government.

My thinking is based on this. There are 650 seats so an absolute majority requires 326 MPs. However, when you take into account the Speaker and Deputy Speakers, a couple of Independents, the NI, Scottish and Welsh parties I reckon that a party with 300 MPs could provide a workable government and not require a formal coalition. Sensible policies will get enough cross party support to be passed, and anything tricky or a 'confidence' matter, such as the annual Budget, could be got through with ad hoc deals, for example with Ulster Unionists or some of the MPs of other parties. Let's not forget the SNP are running Scotland on a minority basis and are making it work.

One other thing...

This election could produce a perverse result - for example, Labour could come third in the popular vote but be the largest party in terms of MPs and remain in government. At what stage will this be unacceptable to the public and there be a massive clamour for electoral reform? If there is such a result I think this is a real possiblity; remember the Westminster elections are now unusual in that they are 'First Past the Post' - Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the London Assembly aren't, and great swathes of the UK are used to a more PR based system.