Three Election Predictions

Always a dangerous thing but here goes...

1. The 'other parties' will be successful
There were only two MPs in the old Parliament who were truly independent - Richard Taylor, the NHS doctor who has been the Wyre Forest MP since 2001, and George Galloway of Respect in Bethnal Green. Boundary changes mean Galloway is standing in the Poplar & Limehouse seat and will probably struggle to win. Taylor is again standing in Wyre Forest and a lot will depend on how strong a local vote he can still draw. Nontheless, outside the 'normal parties' - Con, Lab, Lib Dem, N Irish, Welsh and Scottish - I suspect that one or two of the 'fringe' parties will either come a good second or even nick a seat. Ones to watch are,

• Stoke on Trent Central - where given a 'parachuted in' Labour candidate and a couple of strong independents who could further split the left wing vote, the BNP, who already have a strong presence on the council, might take the seat.
• Barking - again a strong BNP presence on the local council and a disaffected 'working class' Labour vote could mean the BNP winning - Nick Griffin polled over 16% of the vote and nearly came second in 2005.
• Buckingham - the constituency of John Bercow, the Speaker, and so tradition means the main parties don't field a candidate. However, Bercow is on the left of the Conservatives, Buckingham has been a traditional right leaning Conservative area, there is local dissatifaction with Bercow and Nigel Farage is the UKIP candidate. Anything could happen.
• Brighton Kemptown - should be a strong Green vote here. Not enough to win but will be a good second place.

2. There will be at least one 'Portillo moment'
Hot favourite for this is Ed Balls to lose his seat. Boundary changes mean a 'notional' majority of 9000 but the local Conservative candidate is running a clever and high profile campaign - including raising decent money on the internet. I suspect Balls, a disliked by the public Cabinet Minister in a disliked government, is very worried.

However, there could also be a few other shocks - how about Jacqui Smith in Redditch? Or even perhaps Jack Straw in Blackburn and Harriet Harman in Camberwell & Peckham? The latter two would be big shocks, but this is a funny election.


3. The winner will be...
A few weeks ago I would have predicted the Conservatives with a small majority - but the rise of the Lib Dems means I'm going to slightly change this. I think it will be a hung parliament - but there won't be a coalition. I reckon we will have a minority Conservative government.

My thinking is based on this. There are 650 seats so an absolute majority requires 326 MPs. However, when you take into account the Speaker and Deputy Speakers, a couple of Independents, the NI, Scottish and Welsh parties I reckon that a party with 300 MPs could provide a workable government and not require a formal coalition. Sensible policies will get enough cross party support to be passed, and anything tricky or a 'confidence' matter, such as the annual Budget, could be got through with ad hoc deals, for example with Ulster Unionists or some of the MPs of other parties. Let's not forget the SNP are running Scotland on a minority basis and are making it work.

One other thing...

This election could produce a perverse result - for example, Labour could come third in the popular vote but be the largest party in terms of MPs and remain in government. At what stage will this be unacceptable to the public and there be a massive clamour for electoral reform? If there is such a result I think this is a real possiblity; remember the Westminster elections are now unusual in that they are 'First Past the Post' - Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the London Assembly aren't, and great swathes of the UK are used to a more PR based system.

Website of the week

Sometimes you just need a little explanation to understand the USA - thankfully here is a helpful map.

Full of Glee

I've already admitted that Glee is one of my guilty secrets - tonight's episode was a 'Madonna' special, complete with an excellent Vogue remake.

Compare the original with the Glee homage - just can't imagine a UK show doing something like this so well.

Putting out the welcome mat?

Yesterday's trip got me thinking. At Kew there were various tourists - mainly French and Japanese along with a few Americans. I couldn't help wondering how many intended on being there, and how many have perhaps had an enforced enlongated stay due to the Icelandic ash?

We've seen lots on the news about Brits being caught out and having to stay longer overseas, but very little about those who've had to stay here in the UK for longer than they thought.

I hope we were accommodating and welcoming to them - how guests/visitors are treated says a lot about us.

And not a Titchmarsh in sight...

Despite having lived in London for several years I have never been to Kew Gardens. This is perhaps even more shameful as for the last few years I've lived fairly close. Anyway, today I corrected that - with lovely spring sunshine and the added bonus of no planes flying overheard.

I'm not really in to gardens; I find them slightly dull as one plant looks pretty similar to another to me. What can I say, I'm a city boy. But Kew was lovely - from the magnificent glass houses to the peaceful quieter parts, from the beautiful lawns to the tree top walk - a well worth trip.

Kew collects an interesting selection of visitors. From pensioners with their season tickets who like the cafes and restaurants, to slightly bemused overseas tourists; from school trips with bored teenagers, to SW London yummie mummies and/or their nannies with children in tow. Having a coffee I was near a particularly braying mum with her brood - talking inanities to friends, or on her mobile, she was wittering on about 'raising children is soooo different in Europe' and 'I didn't even record the leaders' debate but daren't tell my freinds. But I ensured I Skyplused Desperate Housewives'. I have to admit that she was such a stereotype I did look around for a film crew wondering if a spoof or a new sitcom was being recorded (or even a section for Outnumbered which has to be the most depressingly middle class and unfunny 'sitcom' since Terry & June - no doubt that will annoy some...).

Stereotypical mums aside - a lovely few hours in an oasis in SW London.

Three Election Observations

As someone interested in politics, who has studied it, and who somehow has ended up working in the Westminster Village, a few observations based on gut feelings and random thoughts.

1. 'It's the economy stupid'
The overwhelming factor in voter behaviour is who people think will make them better off. It's not as simple as straight cash and tax policy, but includes things like education, health and pensions - so it's a bit more nuanced than people think. However, all depend on the underlying economy and whilst I doubt many people appreciate just how dicey the economy is at the macro level, it will still be the largest deciding voting factor. The reason there is no clear party in the lead is that all have pretty similar economic policies - the differences are minor - hence voter uncertainty.

2. It's not the 'first internet election'
Labour may have lost one PPC due to poor tweeting, but the internet won't be a massive factor in this election. Compared to the US Presidential election the parties are raising very little cash via the internet and most of their publicity is still via the mainstream media and direct mail. One or two political blogs will be worth following - and may break a massive story - but it will largely still be a fairly traditional election campaign.

3. Opinion polls are interesting but ultimately useless
It's a cliche that the only poll that matters is the one on election day, but though opinion polls are mildly diverting, they don't actually tell us a huge amount. The following are some of the reasons;

• margin of error - this is usually +/- 2 or 3% - this can make quite a difference, esp. between an overall result and a hung parliament
• there are only a snapshot - it is how a person would vote at the time they asked the question. Polls, on the whole, don't measure depth or strength of support; ask the same person an hour later and the result could be different. A lot can change in a campaign - and voters are fickle
• the 'don't knows' - notice how most polls don't publish the percentage of 'don't knows'/'haven't decideds'? In the past I've been polled and you often don't get this as option. My hunch is that this election there are huge number who are don't knows - to be useful we need polls showing this
• won't vote - who know what the turnout will be, and more importantly how it will be distributed? This is as important as the 'don't knows'

Look at polls, but take the above in to account - polls are interested but are flawed.

Some predictions to follow...

An Easter Break

Blogging has been 'light' of late - OK, non existant. Anyway, been lots on lately and whilst I've not got nothing to say, blogging is a habit, and like all habits you can fall out of it quickly. Don't know if I'll resume blogging more regularly - and given the various false starts of late, I'm not promising!

Escaped to north Devon for a couple of days over the Easter weekend. Quite a contrast. On the Saturday went to Big Sheep - which does exactly what it says on the tin, there are sheep, lots. And pigs, and somewhat bizarrely, some Indian Running Ducks which you can watch being herded by a sheep dog. All very strange but good fun; a great venue, especially with small children in tow who have a wonderful time.

Sunday was slightly different as heading back up the A303 to Thruxton to watch the opening round of the British Touring Car Championship. When in the shelter from the wind and the sun came out it was lovely - when in the wind and no sun it was bitterly cold. Again another good day - and such a contrast in the space of 2 days. One day sheep, the next petrol heads and 'pit lane babes' - OK hairdressers from Essex.

So eventually headed back to London on the Monday. A very British bank holiday weekend in many ways - mixed weather and two different and typically British events.

Mind you, even in rural Devon there was no escape from some aspects of the Westminster Village.

Website of the week

The is lots of knowledge on the web.

But we know that the web was really invented to share Unnecessary Knowledge.

Hitting the refresh button is strangely addictive...

Talking 'bout a Revolution

Last weekend I was up in Manchester to go to Revolution 28. The Revolution series are track cycling meetings that are a cross between an exhibition event and a team meeting, which gives a chance for young talent to develop. Held at the national Velodrome on a Saturday evening it's a good family event for cycle fans - blending the best of the world (Sir Chris Hoy and Victoria Pendleton were competing) with up and coming talent.

I'd never been to the velodrome before and it's a great venue. Spectators are close to the tight, banked track as the athletes whizz past - the atmosphere is great. It must be incredible at a World Cup or championship event.

British Cycling is have a wonderful time - dominant on the track and now with a strong Protour professional team with Team Sky. Interestingly Sky where at the event doing some 3D recording - which will be fascinating to see. But like most sports in the UK it relies on a strong volunteer base. Looking at the officials at the meeting doing their thing in the centre of the track I couldn't help but wonder what some of these volunteers make of it - some of them must have been helping cycling during the lean years. I wonder what they'd have said if 15 years ago you'd told them what the state of UK cycling would be today - complete with knighthoods, world champions and a thorough and professional outfit?

So a great evening - thoroughly enjoyable. And the banking of the velodrome track has to be seen to be believed!

Moore at the Tate

Went to a preview of the Henry Moore exhibition at Tate Britain the other evening.

Not sure what to make of it. I'll admit that I'm not a huge sculpture fan, but looking at these pieces up close you are forced to admire the artistry. Moore worked with a variety of materials - bronze, concrete, elmwood, alabaster - and his works comes in a variety of sizes. Seeing them all together does give you an appreciation of the sheer scale of his work.

But... well... putting so much Moore in one place does dilute it. There is a whole room of 'Mother & Child' pieces, another room has numerous 'Reclining figures'. It, frankly, becomes rather boring and 'samey' after a while - perhaps less really is Moore.

However, there are some simply stunning drawing of miners at work and people sheltering in the Underground during WW2 - they are beautiful and haunting. These are certainly worth seeing and spending time with.

If you are a fan of Moore then you'll enjoy this. If not I suggest an alternative. Within yards of Tate Britain find two of Moore's pieces - one by the Thames across the river from MI6 building, one on the green by Parliament where the TV crews do their interviews. These are beautiful pieces in beautiful locations - and can be enjoyed for free.

The Age of the Train part 2

On train back from Manchester.

Virgin Trains really are donkeys. Most tickets require 'mandatory' seat reservations. None of the reserved seats are marked - all seats have labelled 'available'.

Result - chaos as people find their 'allocated' seats already occupied.

Still, at least we seem to have hot water and working loos. I guess that's progress?

The Age of the Train

Currently on train to Manchester. Travelling by Virgin is 'interesting'.

1. Are lots of 1st class coaches - probably empty. Result - standard class is rammed.
2. Is no tea or coffee or hot drinks due to a 'blown fuse.' Eh... can't you replace the fuse?Simples.
3. There was an annoucement listing the working toilets - it didn't sound very many.

So, we have modern, new trains but you can't get a hot drink and a lot of the loos don't work? This is progress?

Mind you - perhaps no hot drinks and non-working toilets are linked...

Website of the week

For those who use Twitter but haven't quite got their head around the privacy settings and still have their geo-location switched on. Have a look at Please Rob Me and learn an interesting lesson.

 

hattip - dizzythinks

Avatar 3D

I don't where to start with Avatar. One of the most expensive movies ever made, first really massive blockbuster to be made in 3D, and now the biggest grossing film of all time with takings of over $2billion.

Pity they didn't spend money on a plot...

Humans are on the planet Pandora where they are mining Unobtanium which sells for millions of dollars per kilo - no, I'm not making this is up, this really is the story.

Humans can't breathe on Pandora but they've developed 'avatars' of themselves as locals which people can operate telepathically by being in a sort of pod. Thus they can interact with the restless locals. Ex-marines provide security for the humans.

Bascially take 30% of Lord of the Rings, 30% Star Wars, 30% Apocalyse Now and, somewhat bizarrely, 10% of the campfest that is Flash Gordon and you have a bit of idea of the film.

Overall the themes seem to be that raping a planet of resources is bad, the military will always fire first and ask questions later, and big business is evil. Messages and the read across to green issues, climate change, the Iraq/Iran/Vietnam wars are all there with massive klaxons going off just in case you haven't quite got it.

It is a beautifully shot film - you can see where the money went - but it's a falsehood that this is a 3D 'game changer'. Actually much of the film would be as impressive in 2D, the 3D effects are good but not 'wow!', and you can easily watch huge chunks of this without your annoying 3D glasses if you want.

But what this does show is how far CGI has come on in recent years - frankly the actors are optional and could easily be completely done artificially via computer. Indeed, in the future we may not need/see real actors - whole films could be done with a complete cast of Avatars.

And that, not the 3D effects, is what the legacy of this, rather mediocre, film will be.

Website of the week

Don't know if you're a fan of bagels - me? I don't mind them but can't get that worked up over them.

However, if you've ever wondered how to make your bagel in to a Mobius strip (see here), well thankfully there is a website for that. Welcome to the Mathematically Correct Breakfast.

There is even a handy YouTube video...

Forest for the trees

Weather's not great but need some fresh air so head out for a decent stroll.

I like the fact that even though you can live in the south east of England, in some of the most densely populated parts of Europe, you still find peace and quiet.

It's cold, damp and a bit muddy - this forest could just as easily be in Wales or Scotland. And then, to surprise you, you come across a market gardening operation.

Though looking at the sign, I'm guessing it's not just the locals of Surrey employed here.

Full of Glee

There are certain TV programmes that both define a decade and are guilty pleasures;

• In the 1980s it was Beverly Hills 90210 - did you like Brandon or Dylan, Andrea or Kelly? (And let's face it, the current updated series just isn't the same even with Brenda and Kelly cameos...)
• In the 1990s it was Buffy
• In the 2000s/noughties it was The OC

I have to say that for the 2010s/teens it could well be Glee.

For so many reasons it shouldn't work - teen angst, musical numbers - but it's one of the funniest, best written and most original shows currently on TV.

It also has a killer soundtrack - and any show that includes an old Huey Lewis & the News track can't be wrong. Glee - my current guilty pleasure.

Things you only know if you're single...

The Times magazine on Saturday has a wonderful little column by Hannah Betts called 'Things you only know if you're single.' It's funny and very knowing. For example, TYOKIYS include;

• you can see why all you're single friends are single - but can't see why you still are
• bank holidays are miserable - for May Day read Mayday

This week it was "Swofties are taking over from cougars." Swofties? Single women over fifty who like clubbing, tweeting and exotic holidays - see here.

What I like is the concept is slightly ridiculed and that we mustn't forget that "today's Swoftie is tomorrow's Single Woman Over Seventy Who Considers Eating Cat Food."

Just as Bridget Jones' Diary let out too many secrets about the female mind, and High Fidelity gave away far too much of what really goes on in a bloke's mind - the TYOKIYS column might be letting the reality of singledom out of the bag!

Website of the week

It's been a while but here's another of those websites that some will find brilliant and cute...

.... and other will find disturbing.

Some people have way too free time to spend on Photoshop...

Oh well - you've heard of 'manchild' - here's ManBabies

Is President Obama going to be President Carter take two?

I don't write much, indeed any, thoughtful stuff here - froth, films and funnies tend to be the preferred witterings here, but I do follow politics on both sides of the Atlantic and can't help wondering if Obama is going to be a one term President in the mould of Jimmy Carter.

There are many similarities;

• both came to power on the back of discredited Republican administrations
• both inherited difficult econmic conditions
• both brought optimism and promises to office, but struggled once in the White House
• both had to deal with difficult foreign policy issues in the Middle East - Israel/Palestine and Iran/Iraq
• both seem to be decent family men who have perhaps found gaining office considerably easier than actually being in office

I do wonder if the similarities may continue, for example;

• Carter was undone by the situation in Iran - could Obama? Indeed the odds seem more stacked against him as he has the additional issues of Iraq and Afghanistan to worry about.
• Carter faced a challenge from within the Democratic Party towards the end of his term, despite being the incumbent President - Edward Kennedy ran against him for the 1980 Presidential campaign. Could Obama, whose poll ratings are pretty low and dropping, face a challenge from, say, Hilary Clinton or another leading Democrat 'for the sake of the party'?
• There was initially no clear Republican challenger to run against Carter - in the end Reagan emerged and swept to power. Where will the next Republican challenger to Obama come from? Who are the up and coming Republican Governors?

In the end Carter's reputation grew upon leaving office - largely due to his work for Habitat for Humanity and his continued work around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I sense something similar may happen to Obama - he becomes a 'greater' world statesman after leaving office than he ever was as a one term President.