Three Election Predictions

Always a dangerous thing but here goes...

1. The 'other parties' will be successful
There were only two MPs in the old Parliament who were truly independent - Richard Taylor, the NHS doctor who has been the Wyre Forest MP since 2001, and George Galloway of Respect in Bethnal Green. Boundary changes mean Galloway is standing in the Poplar & Limehouse seat and will probably struggle to win. Taylor is again standing in Wyre Forest and a lot will depend on how strong a local vote he can still draw. Nontheless, outside the 'normal parties' - Con, Lab, Lib Dem, N Irish, Welsh and Scottish - I suspect that one or two of the 'fringe' parties will either come a good second or even nick a seat. Ones to watch are,

• Stoke on Trent Central - where given a 'parachuted in' Labour candidate and a couple of strong independents who could further split the left wing vote, the BNP, who already have a strong presence on the council, might take the seat.
• Barking - again a strong BNP presence on the local council and a disaffected 'working class' Labour vote could mean the BNP winning - Nick Griffin polled over 16% of the vote and nearly came second in 2005.
• Buckingham - the constituency of John Bercow, the Speaker, and so tradition means the main parties don't field a candidate. However, Bercow is on the left of the Conservatives, Buckingham has been a traditional right leaning Conservative area, there is local dissatifaction with Bercow and Nigel Farage is the UKIP candidate. Anything could happen.
• Brighton Kemptown - should be a strong Green vote here. Not enough to win but will be a good second place.

2. There will be at least one 'Portillo moment'
Hot favourite for this is Ed Balls to lose his seat. Boundary changes mean a 'notional' majority of 9000 but the local Conservative candidate is running a clever and high profile campaign - including raising decent money on the internet. I suspect Balls, a disliked by the public Cabinet Minister in a disliked government, is very worried.

However, there could also be a few other shocks - how about Jacqui Smith in Redditch? Or even perhaps Jack Straw in Blackburn and Harriet Harman in Camberwell & Peckham? The latter two would be big shocks, but this is a funny election.


3. The winner will be...
A few weeks ago I would have predicted the Conservatives with a small majority - but the rise of the Lib Dems means I'm going to slightly change this. I think it will be a hung parliament - but there won't be a coalition. I reckon we will have a minority Conservative government.

My thinking is based on this. There are 650 seats so an absolute majority requires 326 MPs. However, when you take into account the Speaker and Deputy Speakers, a couple of Independents, the NI, Scottish and Welsh parties I reckon that a party with 300 MPs could provide a workable government and not require a formal coalition. Sensible policies will get enough cross party support to be passed, and anything tricky or a 'confidence' matter, such as the annual Budget, could be got through with ad hoc deals, for example with Ulster Unionists or some of the MPs of other parties. Let's not forget the SNP are running Scotland on a minority basis and are making it work.

One other thing...

This election could produce a perverse result - for example, Labour could come third in the popular vote but be the largest party in terms of MPs and remain in government. At what stage will this be unacceptable to the public and there be a massive clamour for electoral reform? If there is such a result I think this is a real possiblity; remember the Westminster elections are now unusual in that they are 'First Past the Post' - Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the London Assembly aren't, and great swathes of the UK are used to a more PR based system.

Website of the week

Sometimes you just need a little explanation to understand the USA - thankfully here is a helpful map.

Full of Glee

I've already admitted that Glee is one of my guilty secrets - tonight's episode was a 'Madonna' special, complete with an excellent Vogue remake.

Compare the original with the Glee homage - just can't imagine a UK show doing something like this so well.

Putting out the welcome mat?

Yesterday's trip got me thinking. At Kew there were various tourists - mainly French and Japanese along with a few Americans. I couldn't help wondering how many intended on being there, and how many have perhaps had an enforced enlongated stay due to the Icelandic ash?

We've seen lots on the news about Brits being caught out and having to stay longer overseas, but very little about those who've had to stay here in the UK for longer than they thought.

I hope we were accommodating and welcoming to them - how guests/visitors are treated says a lot about us.

And not a Titchmarsh in sight...

Despite having lived in London for several years I have never been to Kew Gardens. This is perhaps even more shameful as for the last few years I've lived fairly close. Anyway, today I corrected that - with lovely spring sunshine and the added bonus of no planes flying overheard.

I'm not really in to gardens; I find them slightly dull as one plant looks pretty similar to another to me. What can I say, I'm a city boy. But Kew was lovely - from the magnificent glass houses to the peaceful quieter parts, from the beautiful lawns to the tree top walk - a well worth trip.

Kew collects an interesting selection of visitors. From pensioners with their season tickets who like the cafes and restaurants, to slightly bemused overseas tourists; from school trips with bored teenagers, to SW London yummie mummies and/or their nannies with children in tow. Having a coffee I was near a particularly braying mum with her brood - talking inanities to friends, or on her mobile, she was wittering on about 'raising children is soooo different in Europe' and 'I didn't even record the leaders' debate but daren't tell my freinds. But I ensured I Skyplused Desperate Housewives'. I have to admit that she was such a stereotype I did look around for a film crew wondering if a spoof or a new sitcom was being recorded (or even a section for Outnumbered which has to be the most depressingly middle class and unfunny 'sitcom' since Terry & June - no doubt that will annoy some...).

Stereotypical mums aside - a lovely few hours in an oasis in SW London.

Three Election Observations

As someone interested in politics, who has studied it, and who somehow has ended up working in the Westminster Village, a few observations based on gut feelings and random thoughts.

1. 'It's the economy stupid'
The overwhelming factor in voter behaviour is who people think will make them better off. It's not as simple as straight cash and tax policy, but includes things like education, health and pensions - so it's a bit more nuanced than people think. However, all depend on the underlying economy and whilst I doubt many people appreciate just how dicey the economy is at the macro level, it will still be the largest deciding voting factor. The reason there is no clear party in the lead is that all have pretty similar economic policies - the differences are minor - hence voter uncertainty.

2. It's not the 'first internet election'
Labour may have lost one PPC due to poor tweeting, but the internet won't be a massive factor in this election. Compared to the US Presidential election the parties are raising very little cash via the internet and most of their publicity is still via the mainstream media and direct mail. One or two political blogs will be worth following - and may break a massive story - but it will largely still be a fairly traditional election campaign.

3. Opinion polls are interesting but ultimately useless
It's a cliche that the only poll that matters is the one on election day, but though opinion polls are mildly diverting, they don't actually tell us a huge amount. The following are some of the reasons;

• margin of error - this is usually +/- 2 or 3% - this can make quite a difference, esp. between an overall result and a hung parliament
• there are only a snapshot - it is how a person would vote at the time they asked the question. Polls, on the whole, don't measure depth or strength of support; ask the same person an hour later and the result could be different. A lot can change in a campaign - and voters are fickle
• the 'don't knows' - notice how most polls don't publish the percentage of 'don't knows'/'haven't decideds'? In the past I've been polled and you often don't get this as option. My hunch is that this election there are huge number who are don't knows - to be useful we need polls showing this
• won't vote - who know what the turnout will be, and more importantly how it will be distributed? This is as important as the 'don't knows'

Look at polls, but take the above in to account - polls are interested but are flawed.

Some predictions to follow...

An Easter Break

Blogging has been 'light' of late - OK, non existant. Anyway, been lots on lately and whilst I've not got nothing to say, blogging is a habit, and like all habits you can fall out of it quickly. Don't know if I'll resume blogging more regularly - and given the various false starts of late, I'm not promising!

Escaped to north Devon for a couple of days over the Easter weekend. Quite a contrast. On the Saturday went to Big Sheep - which does exactly what it says on the tin, there are sheep, lots. And pigs, and somewhat bizarrely, some Indian Running Ducks which you can watch being herded by a sheep dog. All very strange but good fun; a great venue, especially with small children in tow who have a wonderful time.

Sunday was slightly different as heading back up the A303 to Thruxton to watch the opening round of the British Touring Car Championship. When in the shelter from the wind and the sun came out it was lovely - when in the wind and no sun it was bitterly cold. Again another good day - and such a contrast in the space of 2 days. One day sheep, the next petrol heads and 'pit lane babes' - OK hairdressers from Essex.

So eventually headed back to London on the Monday. A very British bank holiday weekend in many ways - mixed weather and two different and typically British events.

Mind you, even in rural Devon there was no escape from some aspects of the Westminster Village.